Despite a democratic transition that has been heralded worldwide and elections slated for November, this week’s most unexpected government shakeup spotlighted the fact that Myanmar’s military is still very much in charge.
That was made obvious on Wednesday night when (now former) Chairman of the ruling party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Shwe Mann was ousted and security forces surrounded the party’s headquarters. His closeness to international democracy icon and Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (of the National League for Democracy) is believed to have soured his relationship with leaders of Myanmar’s military, reported the Guardian.
“This move confirms that the military leadership is not prepared to allow anyone who is acting against its interests to run the USDP, which it considers as its proxy party, or to run the country,” Christina Fink, professor of practice in international affairs at George Washington University, told Borderless.
The military leadership and the president have long been unhappy with Shwe Mann. He has challenged the president’s powers and has not upheld the military’s interests. In June, Shwe Mann brought to a vote proposed changes to the constitution that would have made it more difficult for the military to block future constitutional amendments. The military members of Parliament all voted against it, and it failed to pass, Fink said.
After that, the military leadership signaled its displeasure with Shwe Mann by encouraging military residents in his Naypyidaw constituency to sign a petition calling for Shwe Mann to be recalled. The last straw was when Shwe Mann refused to accept most of the 149 high ranking military officers, who were to be retired, to enter the USDP as candidates in the upcoming election. He was also apparently reluctant to allow some cabinet ministers close to the president to run for the party, Fink said.
With the country’s elections coming up in November, the impact of this unexpected government shakeup remains unknown. Tin Aye, head of the Union Election Commission, which oversees the country’s elections, has said that the elections will not be affected, although experts and observers are eyeing the situation closely and taking a wait-and-see stance.
Myanmar’s political parties have until August 21st to submit changes to their candidate lists, but it remains unclear whether Shwe Mann and other USDP members of Parliament close to him will still be allowed to run for the party, Fink said.
As for Myanmar’s standing with the international community, the U.S. and UK governments have condemned the military’s move, but it remains unknown whether that will have an impact.
At any rate, Fink said this week’s events are a reminder that the transition in Myanmar was initiated by the military, and that the military still intends to control the pace and extent of reforms.
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