Myanmar’s historic elections, slated for next month, are expected to be a crucial turning point for the country. But experts, observers and political prognosticators fret that all may not go smoothly in the weeks and months after the polls close.
Ethnic conflict that rocked parts of the country a couple of years ago remains unresolved, and it remains unknown whether the military-backed ruling party will cede power if defeated.
The elections come more than four years after the former military junta was dissolved in March 2011. Hopes were high that the country would see real political and economic change, but critics say the new government has not delivered on its promises of a better economy in one of Asia’s poorest nations.
The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) is favored to gain the most seats in an election that could prove a major turning point in the country’s tumultuous history. But the big question is whether the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) will let go of power if defeated at the polls. Indeed, 25 years ago, the NLD won 80 percent of seats in parliament in an election that the military junta declared invalid.
Exerts said the recent internal shakeup, in which (now former) chairman of the ruling party Shwe Mann was ousted from power while security forces surrounded his party’s headquarters, showed that the military is still firmly in charge. Some even said military leaders will only allow democracy to go so far, and that the August incident demonstrates the military will not allow anyone it perceives as acting against its interests to run the country. That includes Shwe Mann, who in June pushed legislation that would have made it more difficult for the military to block amendments to the constitution, some experts said.
If the opposition NLD wins and is permitted to take power, it remains unknown who it will back for president (in Myanmar, the party in charge chooses the president). Nobel Prize winner and international democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi is barred by law from becoming president – her two children are British – but to date the party has not put forth any candidates.
Richard Cockett, author of the new book “Blood, Dreams and Gold, the Changing Face of Burma,” told Borderless News Online that NLD leader and Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi has not sufficiently developed her party. He added that there is no shadow cabinet waiting in the wings to take power.
“Aung San Suu Kyi is important in the rallying of the opposition and everyone has admired her stubbornness and personal sacrifices and bravery. But since 2011 those very qualities – stubbornness, etc. – have served her less well. And that has not been good for the NLD,” argued Cockett, who is also a correspondent for The Economist.
Aung Sang Suu Kyi has failed to make the NLD a proper functioning and evolved, consultative democratic party ready to take power, and the party remains dominated by herself and her closest associates, he contended.
“The leadership is still very concentrated in her own hands, nothing gets done without her say so…That approach works very well under military rule, when she was such an icon of resistance, but it has served her less well in peace, where you have to be more flexible and more conciliatory and building a broad and wide-based party,” he said.
Cockett also expressed disappointment about what he called her lack of public sympathy and inability to stand up for persecuted minorities such as the Rohingya. “She has completely failed to stand up for them.”
Another concern is that the country’s international image seems to be less of a concern than it was when the country first came out of isolation a few years back. The government recently passed the Protection of Race and Religion laws, which many critics said discriminate against the country’s Muslims.
Indeed, Western nations have lost much of their former leverage, having lifted several sanctions and thereby abandoning all the leverage they had with the old regime. The hardliners now calculate the West is not going to go back on those sanctions. Myanmar has also diversified its investors, and several Asian nations are unconcerned about human rights abuses, which tend to be issues of concern for the West, Cockett said.
That means the current government can just carry on with laws that discriminate against Muslims and continue to tolerate persecution not only against Muslims but also against ethnic minorities such as the Kachin and Karen. “The West is already in there, no one wants to pull out again,” he said.
Be that as it may, the passage of the race and religion laws will do nothing to endear the ruling party to the United States, and could be another reason for Washington to drag its heels on revising the Specially Designated Nationals list (SDN), which bars U.S. companies from doing business with individuals in Myanmar accused of corruption or human rights abuses. In fact, last year the U.S. added to the list an individual who had allegedly been involved in the anti-Muslim violence.
Cockett said all these uncertainties make investors more wary about investing in the country, and ridding the transitioning nation of these problems will be a challenge after the elections.
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