ISIS is ramping up its ability to launch attacks against civilians, and is getting better at it. Carried out with suicide bombers and firearms, the attacks have killed hundreds. But what would happen if the terrorists got hold of chemical weapons or nuclear materials?
Over the last 6 months, ISIS has proven its ability to hit major cities, carrying out major strikes in Paris, Brussels, the U.S. and Istanbul. The carnage of all four deadly attacks has now topped 200 deaths and over 1,000 injured, and there may be more attacks to come.
While ISIS is not able to build a conventional nuclear bomb or missile, the group has the ability to make a “dirty bomb” – a crude device that disperses radiation and can be carried in a backpack and set off in major city centers, anywhere from New York to Seoul to Tokyo to Paris. While the impact might not be immediate, it could potentially make large amounts of people sick from radiation poisoning. It would also render an area unsafe for years, depending on how crowded the area and the device’s potency.
There are reports that ISIS has stolen nearly 40 kilos of uranium compounds from a university in Iraq, and in 2014 that country’s United Nations ambassador warned the international body about the problem.
There have also been allegations that ISIS has used mustard gas delivered in mortar shells against the Kurds in April, noted Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department’s Middle East Intelligence Office, in an interview with Borderless News Online.
ISIS itself has long wanted to get its hands on chemical weapons. Abu Musab Zarqawi, who founded ISIS’ predecessor al Qaeda in Iraq, was preoccupied with the idea and allegedly experimented with them in an Afghan training camp in the lead-up to the 9/11 attacks. The terror operative was also linked to a foiled plan to kill thousands of people in Jordan using mustard gas.
The New York Times reported in recent months that authorities in Belgium thwarted a plan to acquire radioactive materials from nuclear plants in that country, in a possible bid to build a dirty bomb. The plan was hatched by the ISIS-affiliated network that carried out the deadly attacks in Paris that killed 130 people.
White said ISIS probably would be interested in getting hold of a dirty bomb – or most any highly destructive weapon – but it is uncertain whether it is actively seeking one.
And getting materials to build weapons of mass destruction is not easy.
ISIS’ territory is shrinking amid a coalition air and ground war against the terrorists. That means facilities where it could fashion a weapon of mass destruction from nuclear waste will become more scarce. Also, any potential supplier could now be more concerned about keeping the sale a secret, amid rising ISIS desertions and eventually a diaspora of many cadres vulnerable to being nabbed. Simply getting the weapon or materials through to ISIS lines would demand a combination of stealth and bribery given that it is now more tightly surrounded, White said.
Pakistan – or those in that country who are sympathetic to ISIS – would be most likely to supply materials for a dirty bomb, White said.
The country has advanced nuclear capabilities and a large number of Islamic militants who have long posed a challenge for its more secular ruling class.
It is conceivable that militants could get hold of nuclear waste materials and such via unknown sympathizers with access to nuclear facilities, corrupt personnel on the inside, or a combination of both, White said.
There have also been concerns about ISIS using a drone to deliver chemical weapons.
White noted that it’s easy to access any number of very small commercial drones, but their carrying capacity is limited.
A larger commercial drone would have to be obtained. A variety of larger models have begun to finish testing and enter the market, but not yet in great numbers.
Yet, the larger the drone, the greater the difficulty in smuggling it into ISIS territory and keeping it hidden during assembly and testing, he said.
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