ISIS is losing territory in the Middle East. That has caused the doomsday jihadists to take their war abroad, to any and every country they can, in a bid to convince their fanatical followers that fate is on their side. And the recent spate of terror attacks worldwide could draw even more new recruits.
“I think clearly what we are seeing is ISIS using external operations to keep morale high among its adherents,” even as it loses slices of territory in Syria and Iraq, RAND Corporation associate political scientist Colin P. Clarke told Borderless News Online.
Indeed, ISIS has since December carried out terrorist attacks in virtually every corner of the world — in Paris, Brussels, Istanbul, the United States and Bangladesh — and there are warnings that more are on the way.
The attacks have killed more than 200 people and maimed more than 1,000. Even worse, the deadly strikes are allowing ISIS to look like it’s on the winning side, despite the fact that the group is losing territory in Syria and Iraq amid ongoing U.S.-led coalition strikes.
That will ensure a continuous stream of recruits from Europe to the United States to the Middle East, and boost the perception to supporters and would-be recruits that ISIS is being driven by a divine hand.
And as ISIS stays in the global news cycle as it carries out attack after attack, that will galvanize supporters worldwide and continue to swell its membership.
At the same time, authorities in vulnerable countries are at a loss on how to stem the tide of attacks. While intel agencies might pick up chatter that an attack is coming, there’s often no way to tell when or where exactly, leaving innocent civilians vulnerable.
“There is very little that can be done at this point to stop these kind of attacks, especially if ISIS militants have been pre-positioned to carry out these strikes,” ” Clarke told Borderless.
But while the terrorists are getting pounded in their territory in the Middle East, defeating them in virtually the rest of the world is highly unlikely at this point.
That’s because defeating the terrorist worldwide would require an all-out effort that many countries around the globe seem unwilling to make. The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has been slammed for what critics said was not taking the issue seriously, and the U.S. political class cannot agree whether this is a gun control issue or a terrorism issue in the U.S.
There are also countries, such as Turkey, where some officials are allegedly sympathetic to ISIS, likening the deadly group to freedom fighters. After the recent terror attacks at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport, observers in Turkey predicted that more such attacks would occur unless the country changes its policies. That leaves civilians sitting ducks for the next attack.
Moreover, lone wolf attacks, such as the recent strike on a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, are notoriously difficult to predict, although U.S. authorities are accused of dropping the ball, as the attacker had been on an FBI watch list for alleged ties to terror groups.
“As demonstrated by the different tactics, techniques and procedures witnessed in Orlando, Istanbul and Dhaka, the ISIS threat is diverse, from motivating lone wolves to working through affiliates to exerting more direct command and control over specific operations,” Clarke said.
Still, there is some hope that if ISIS is decisively defeated in the Middle East, it will be a psychological blow to the group’s supporters and would-be supporters worldwide, as it would show the group is not indestructible.
“I think without a doubt the more ISIS is perceived as losing, the more its brand suffers and with that, recruitment will dwindle as well,” Clarke said.
No material may be fully re-printed or re-broadcast without the written permission of Borderless News Online.
