By Zhixing Zhang
Forecast
- A U.S ban on Thailand’s fish and shrimp imports will be unlikely in the short term.
- The coming months will be critical for the European Commission to formulate decisions on the next step toward Thailand’s seafood imports.
Calls for a boycott of seafood produced in Thailand are growing after an AP report that shows human trafficking in Thailand remains pervasive. But despite mounting pressures, a full ban on the country’s shrimp imports by the United States – which makes up 40 percent of Thailand’s total shrimp exports – seems unlikely in the short term. However, the threat of trade bans by the European Commission, its third largest export market, remains.
Thailand is the world’s largest shrimp supplier and its lucrative shrimp industry is highly dependent on migrant workers in its labor-intensive pre-processing stage of production. Yet this is the least regulated aspect in the entire supply chain, which is repeatedly subjected to high-profile exposure by global media and international human rights groups for its systematic trafficking, exploitation and severe human rights abuses. In 2014, Thailand was downgraded to Tier 3 in the U.S. State Department’s 2014 Global Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report. This, in addition to a “yellow card” issued by the European Union in 2015 over illegal, unreported, or unregulated (IUU) fishing, has put Thailand at the risk of economic sanctions by the United States and European Union, if Bangkok shows no progress on the issue.
In the United States, the revealing details from the report prompted renewed outcry from bipartisan politicians and right groups. On December 16, Democrat Congressman Emanuel Cleaver in a letter called on the U.S Food and Drug Administration and the U.S Department of Labor to implement “administrative actions available” to punish U.S companies that associate themselves with slave labor. This was followed by a remark by Republican Congressman Chris Smith, “All of us may find ourselves eating a slave-made product without knowing it, but once we know it, we all have a moral obligation…to make a personal decision to boycott it.”
Pressures aside, a ban on Thai shrimp products by the United States has not yet been on the table. When asked if the remark by Rep. Chris Smith, also the chairman of House subcommittee on human rights, entails legislation to ban Thailand fish and shrimp import to the U.S market, Jeff Sagnip, communications director for the congressman, told Borderless that “there is no bill at this point.” However, he suggested that the issue of human trafficking in the shrimp industry “will likely be a topic during next hearings of House’s subcommittee on global human rights.”
Among major U.S retailers, concern for a trade ban is not apparent. It is unlikely that there will be a ban on all seafood imports from Thailand, a spokesperson from Sea Best, a U.S. seafood retailer that sells Thai shrimp, told Borderless. But there will be measures to strengthen independent third-party monitoring and to ensure the slave labor associated shrimp and other products will not be sold to the U.S market, the spokesperson said.
While a full ban by the United States may not be an immediate concern, Thailand’s shrimp suppliers are facing a critical test in the coming months as the European Commission sets to formulate decisions on the next step toward Thailand seafood imports.
Under the“yellow card” status, Thailand in April 2015 was given a proposed action plan from European Commission. This allowed the country six months to rectify the situation of IUU fishing for the EU to revoke the “yellow card,” or risk being hit with seafood-related trade sanctions from the EU. The European Commission earlier announced a December deadline to decide whether or not Thailand’s efforts have been enough to continue importing its seafood. Answering a question on whether the decision has been made, Enrico Brivio, the spokesperson of the European Commission for Environment, Health, Food Safety, Fisheries and Maritime Affairs, told Borderless that the Commission is still “analyzing the outcome of these negotiations and will decide on next steps in the coming months. At this point in time no decision has been taken.” He continued, “real signs of change and delivery on commitments by very early next year will be decisive in informing the Commission’s decision.”
If the Commission decides the IUU issue has been sufficiently resolved by Thailand’s government, it could revoke Thailand’s “yellow card” status. However, the possibility of such an outcome appears to be slim at this point. Alternatively, it is possible that the European Commission extends the deadline of Thailand’s “yellow card” decision. But if the Commission decides that Thailand failed to show progress in compliance with the EU’s fishing rule, a “red card” will likely follow. This will cause Thailand’s shrimp exports, which have already seen four consecutive years of decline since 2012, to face EU trade sanctions. According to an assessment by Kasikorn Research Centre, a leading Thai economic center, a “red card” status issued by the European Union could put the country’s shrimp exports further down by 7.7 percent in the year of 2016.
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