By: Hla Hpone “Jack” Myint
Just three months before the much-anticipated general elections in Myanmar, remnants of its military junta past came back to life when approximately 200 members of the armed forces surrounded the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)’s headquarters in Nay Pyi Taw this past Wednesday.
The building was placed under lockdown and a closed-door emergency meeting was called. Soon after this occurrence, presidential front runner and current Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament Thura U Shwe Mann was relieved of his duties as party Chairman. With his main opponent out of the way, this could very well mean that the incumbent President Thein Sein would stay on for a second term. Some of Shwe Mann’s closest allies within the party, including Secretary General Maung Maung Thein, were also removed from their respective positions. USDP Vice-Chair U Htay Oo, a Thein Sein ally who maintains close ties to the retired dictator Sr. General Than Shwe, was appointed as party Chairman. Rumors began to float around about Shwe Mann and his men possibly being placed under house arrest but that was settled this morning when Shwe Mann released a statement clarifying his continuing capacity as Speaker of Parliament.
Given the heavy utilization of security forces in carrying out an internal party matter and looking back at Myanmar’s past in dealing with high level political purges, this situation creates cause for concern over the present administration’s sincerity towards democratic reform.
Indeed, anyone who knows Myanmar knows full well that this doesn’t simply end here. As we begin to analyze what this development entails for Myanmar’s post-election environment, it is important to first look into the reasoning behind Shwe Mann’s removal in this inter-party coup, which can be broken down into three major underlying factors.
SHWE MANN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY (NLD)
A former General during the military junta, Shwe Mann is now seen by both domestic and international spectators as a reformist and has gained popularity for having a good working relationship with NLD Chair and Opposition Leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Although Suu Kyi has the highest popular support of anyone in the country, article 59 (f) of the 2008 Constitution prohibits her from becoming President or Vice-President, due to her relation to foreign nationals (her sons are foreign citizens and anyone with a spouse or children of foreign citizenship cannot run for president in Myanmar).
An alternative to that, many assumed, would be a coalition government with Shwe Mann as President in an NLD majority Parliament. Given Shwe Mann’s military background and leadership role within the USDP, this could keep a good balance between NLD members, ex-military officials in top government posts and the current military that controls 25 percent of the seats in Parliament, which are appointed by the Commander-in-Chief.
But because the military has little to no faith in the NLD and the two sides have been at odds for so long, it is believed that among the military leadership and conservative forces within the USDP, an NLD that holds too much power under a Shwe Mann presidency could place the military in a compromising position. In addition to his relationship with the NLD, Shwe Mann, in his capacity as Speaker, has exhibited signs of sidelining military power, which brings us to our second point.
SHWE MANN’S SUPPORT OF LEGISLATION THAT AIMS TO TAKE AWAY THE MILITARY’S VETO POWER OVER CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
In June, the NLD proposed a bill to change the percentage vote required for constitutional amendments from over 75 percent (according to article 436) to 70 percent. Because the military holds 25 percent of the parliamentary seats and votes in unison upon command of the military’s Commander-in-Chief, it holds a veto power to vote down any amendment. And this proposed bill will simply cripple its current grip on the political system. In what evidently became a failed effort, Shwe Mann came out in support of this bill and entertained a three-day parliamentary debate on the subject matter, a move that alienated him from the military. It also sent a clear signal to the military that in the future, Shwe Mann would not hesitate to take drastic steps to sideline its role.
A petition of approximately 1,700 signatories calling for Shwe Mann’s impeachment began circulating in his constituency, Zayar Thiri, as a result of his stance on the bill and for “creating misunderstanding between the public and the military.” In an interview with the BBC, Shwe Mann dismissed this as politically motivated and affirms that he did what he thought was best for the country and its people, fully aware of what he might be getting into. The military’s concern heightened even further when Shwe Mann’s decision on the USDP parliamentary candidates’ list came to light.
DENIAL OF UNION MINISTERS OF EX-MILITARY TO JOIN THE USDP PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES’ LIST
On August 11, Commander-in-Chief Sr. General Min Aung Hlaing tapped 140 senior military officers to resign from service and run under the USDP in coming November elections. Only 59 of those 140 were accepted into the USDP’s candidates’ list and the decision making was attributed to Shwe Mann. He has also denied earlier requests of powerful Union Ministers U Aung Min, who has been the President’s chief negotiator for the national ceasefire agreement and U Soe Thein, a leading figure in the president’s economic reform initiative, to contest the elections under USDP affiliation. Both decisions put Shwe Mann on the bad side of the military and the President’s office.
LOOKING AHEAD: WHAT’S NEXT
All three of the aforementioned reasons, exclusively or collectively, portray Shwe Mann as someone who would not hesitate to turn his back on the military, and that doesn’t quite bode well when you also happen to be chairman of the military-dominated USDP. Though he may have only lost his position within the party at this point, more can be expected to follow suit. For instance, the very next day after Shwe Mann’s removal from USDP, Union Election Commission (UEC) Chairman U Tin Aye asked the Lower House to immediately enact a law on impeachment proceedings for lawmakers. The 1,700 signatories that called for Shwe Mann’s impeachment, which he dismissed earlier, just might come back to bite him, as the Zeyar Thiri constituency is comprised mostly of military families, among whom he is not so popular as of now.
Another possibility is for Shwe Mann to follow in the routes of former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and Minister Hsan Hsint to be slapped with criminal charges for corruption. During his time as a top general for the junta, Shwe Mann has amassed tremendous wealth in the forms of foreign bank accounts, property and investments in many major industry sectors in Myanmar.
What happened to Shwe Mann has cleared the way for incumbent President Thein Sein to pursue a second five-year term. The president has officially declared that he would not be running in the elections but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be elected President – in Myanmar, it is not the public but the MPs that select the President and Vice Presidents and so far, Thein Sein has the military representatives’ backing. There is very high chance that he will return to the presidency.
Myanmar’s road to good governance and democracy is indeed a long way ahead and if there is one thing the events that took place this week did was to clear any ambiguity on how the country’s separation of powers work.
The bottom line is that the military is still in charge and has the upper hand over every other individual, party or institution. It holds veto power in parliament, shares executive power with the president by controlling the three major ministries – defense, home and border affairs — and has the constitutional right to call a state of emergency at any time for whatever reason.
Hla Hpone “Jack” Myint is a native of Myanmar and a Research Assistant at Inle Advisory Group, a Myanmar-centric advisory firm based in Washington, D.C. He is also a Prospect Burma (Aung San Suu Kyi Nobel Peace Prize Fund) Scholar.
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Borderless News or any person or organization associated with Borderless News. For further inquiry, please contact myinthh@washjeff.edu.
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